The most relevant players of the NPL segment operating in Spain and Portugal met at the NPL Iberia 2023 Summit, at the end of November, to discuss the issues on the subject of debt.
One of the panel discussions of this gathering focused on Portugal with the presence of Nelson Rêgo, CEO & Founder of OGER. At his side were Volkert Reig Schmidt, CEO of GNB Real Estate, Rafael Paim, Head of Underwriting Iberia of Servdebt, as well as Pedro Valle Domingues CGO of doValue, Miguel Anjos, Managing Director of Atta Real Estate and David Sequeira Dinis, Partner in Uría Menéndez – Proença de Carvalho.
Nelson Rêgo emphasized the Portuguese market’s stagnation in comparison to its neighbouring country. “In contrast with Spain, where we monitor more activity and an increase in the number and volume of business at an initial stage, in Portugal we are at a standstill since 2022 (1,7 billion were negotiated), in comparison with 2021 (3,5 billion were transacted)” stated the head of OGER. As for 2023, he estimates that the figure will be 1,4 billion, which represents an annual decrease of 20%.
Referring to some other numbers, that portray the NPL market, Nelson Rêgo declared that there was a decline of 70% of stock between 2019 and 2023 – which affected the number of portfolios placed on the market for sale. “Those that were placed on the market were smaller (with an 85 million euros ticket, such as the Grace project) and with a larger percentage of non-guaranteed loans, which affected/hindered the attraction of the Portuguese market”, he concluded. As for the future, the evidence available points to an increase of defaults. Nonetheless, the head of OGER doesn’t predict an NPL outbreak similar to the one we had in 2011, pointing out that “the biggest cost of the debt will also affect the performance of the existing NPL”
